Here is the thing. This is a central underlying thing that science has forgotten. It is not about proof. Al these IPCC scientist are out to prove but none are about to falsify. A thousand proofs can be undone by a single falsification. Proofs can stand for many decades and even longer but that single black swan immediate dispatches the proof that all swans are white even if that theory was the standard for hundreds of years. All science is tentative and provisional. So how do you falsify it? They cannot even prove it! No, just shut up and pay your taxes or you are all going to die!
Observational uncertainty, errors, biases, and estimation discrepancies in longwave radiation may be 100 times larger than the entire accumulated influence of CO2 increases over 10 years. This effectively rules out clear detection of a potential human influence on climate.
Kim and Lee, 2019 Measurement errors of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) reach 11 W/m², more than 50 times larger than total CO2 forcing over 10 years. Cloud optical thickness (COT) and water vapor have “the greatest effect” on OLR – an influence of 2.7 W/m². CO2 must rise to 800 ppm to impute an influence of 1 W/m².
Kato et al., 2018 Downward longwave radiation (DLR) responds to variability in water vapor and cloud. (CO2 isn’t mentioned in the paper as a factor influencing DLR.) CO2 rose by 20 ppm during 2005-2014, but total DLR was negative (-0.2 W/m²) during this decade, insinuating rising CO2 had no net warming climate impact. Uncertainty in DLR is 6 W/m² per year, whereas CO2 forcing is just 0.02 W/m² per year – 300 times smaller.
Wild et al., 2019 Observations vs. model bias/discrepancy ranges in downward longwave radiation span between 22 W/m² to 26 W/m², which is 120 times larger than CO2’s total influence over 10 years.
Stephens et al., 2019 “Gross assumptions” must be made about cloud physics due to a lack of observations. Sources of error in models yield an uncertainty of ~80%. Models of cloud processes are 3-5 times discrepant from observations.
Frank, 2019 “An AGW signal … will never emerge from climate noise.” Cloud forcing “error is ±114 times larger than the annual average increase in GHG [greenhouse gas] forcing.” “A temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot … be evidenced in climate observables.”
Munich Climate Conference 2019
“Not Worthy Of Any Consensus” …4 Renowned Scientists Expose Major IPCC Shortcomings: “Models Clearly Erroneous”
1. Alps glaciers smaller than today during much of the Holocene
Prof. em. Christian Schlüchter is a leading Swiss geologist. His findings show that for long periods of time in the last 12,000 years, temperatures were higher than in 2005. Early on, from 10,000 to 8,800 BC, and again in the last few hundred years, temperatures were significantly lower.
The key message is that the alpine glacier extent was often smaller than in 2005. The timberline was at least 300 meters higher, which indicates a minimum of 1.8° C higher temperatures than today. An example of this is
Hannibal, who managed to cross the Alps with elephants during the Roman times.
2. IPCC models have substantial shortcomings
Italian physicist and climate modeler Nicola Scafetta, a well-known critic of IPCC climate models. Scafetta discussed several areas where the climate models constantly fail. A key case is the Medieval Warm Period, which he showed together with the Roman Warm Period and the Modern Warm Period:
According to Scafetta, the models the IPCC uses are not capable of reproducing climate variations, which follow periodic solar activity.
3. Nir Shaviv: CO2 climate sensitivity largely overestimated
Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv continued where Scafetta left off, presenting the IPCC world and its errors. Shaviv emphasized that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is unknown and largely overestimated by the IPCC:
The Israeli astrophysicist judged the IPCC leaving out the sun as a driver “a severe shortcoming”, saying that the IPCC overestimates climate sensitivity of CO2 at the expense of solar influences.
While IPCC modelers managed to hide this for 20th century data, it will lead to a serious overestimate of temperatures in the 21st when solar influences will be cooling, according to the the Israeli scientist. Shaviv therefore expects a much lower temperature rise than that predicted by the IPCC.
4. Sun, clouds have huge impact on climate, IPCC ignores
Danish physicist and climate researcher
Henrik Svensmark talked how he found it more and more difficult to raise funding for his research because the results contradict the IPCC.
Svensmark investigated the mechanism of how cosmic rays impact the creation of climate-crucial clouds. This happens through creation of ions which serve as clouding seeds in the atmosphere:
By experiments and by correlation measurements, Svensmark investigated the mechanism of cloud creation by cosmic rays. IPCC researchers already cite a reduction of cloud creation as a possible positive feedback mechanism, which could escalate global warming to catastrophic levels, and so Svensmark’s research needs to be addressed seriously.
The importance of cloud creation as a cooling climate factor is regarded as undisputed.
https://hintermbusch.wordpress.com/2019/12/01/climate-conference-munich-2019/
Intimidation, Relocation, Police protection
When this conference was scheduled in its usual location, a Munich hotel, a media campaign smeared it as anti-scientific, right-wing and even for ‚killing people‘ by denying climate change. The most prominent newspaper pushing that campaign was the Berlin based newspaper
Tagesspiegel, which published several articles smearing the conference. Shortly before its start, the Munich based
Umweltinstitut published an
open letter calling the hotel to cancel the conference which it did after a group of activists entered its lobby and smeared the conference and upset guests. The hotel management declared that
„Denying climate change is not compatible with NH group values“
The conference, however, took place in a different location and under police protection, but in an orderly way and
without any serious troubles.