Coronavirus Pandemic

David Bailey said:
I understood it was based on PCR, but maybe LoganChristopher has more detailed information.

If anyone here speaks reasonable German, this sounds useful. I based my comment partly on a rather bad translation of this video.


David
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In the video he is saying the tests don't detect covid-19 specifically, they test for any strain of corona virus - so they don't show the disease and deaths are due to covid-19. This is also what one of my quotes from wikipedia said about one of the Korean tests. However the US does test for covid-19 specifically (see below).

In the video he is saying we don't know what people are dying from, covid-19, another covid strain, or another virus because a person could also have less dangerous covid virus in their bodies but actually die from the flu.

He is saying that they are finding covid because they are testing for it. It is not unusual for people to have some type of covid virus. And we don't have enough excess deaths to demonstrate that there is a new dangerous disease on the loose, We just know something that was always known: some humans have covid viruses in them.

It may be that the German test, like the Korean test I mentioned in my other post, is not specific for covid-19

However the US test is specific for covid 19 and the arguments in the video do not apply to the situation in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is distributing the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel to public health labs through the International Reagent Resource.​


He then goes on to say the panic in China was caused by (European) scientists raising the alarm.

That is not what I have read. What I have read is that the panic was caused by so many sick people that the hospitals were overflowing and they had to build new ones.

The Chinese doctor who is now famous for being censored by the police for raising the alarm and who later died from the disease was not panicked by scientists. He made an observation of patients in his practice and wanted to warn other doctors to use masks and gowns to protect themselves. Evidently this virus is so dangerous that this doctor who was so concerned was himself unable to protect himself and he died from the virus.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382
Dr Li Wenliang, who was hailed a hero for raising the alarm about the coronavirus in the early days of the outbreak, has died of the infection.​
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His death was confirmed by the Wuhan hospital where he worked and was being treated, following conflicting reports about his condition on state media.​
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Dr Li, 34, tried to send a message to fellow medics about the outbreak at the end of December. Three days later police paid him a visit and told him to stop. He returned to work and caught the virus from a patient. He had been in hospital for at least three weeks.​
 
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Jim_Smith said:
Here is an example of how one test works:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
The South Korean company Kogenebiotech developed a clinical grade, PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 detection kit (PowerChek Coronavirus) on 28 January 2020.[88][89] It looks for the "E" gene shared by all beta coronaviruses, and the RdRp gene specific to SARS-CoV-2.[90] Other companies in the country, such as Solgent and Seegene, also developed versions of clinical grade detection kits, named DiaPlexQ and Allplex 2019-nCoV Assay, respectively, in February 2020.​
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There are several Korean tests, at least one of them is specific for covid-19 (2019-nCov).

So when you cite articles claiming false positives it is important to know which test they are talking about. The tests that are not specific for covid-19 will generate false positives if they are used to identify covid-19.
 
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Another factor to consider when comparing covid-19 to the flu is that the flu is seasonal, it goes away in the warm weather.

There is speculation that covid-19 will also go away in the warm weather, but as yet this is not certain. If covid-19 is not seasonal, it can produce may more hospitalizations and deaths than flu even if it were no more infectious and deadly than the flu. The following maps show confirmed cases and deaths in the southern hemisphere.

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Jim,

Thanks for all that information - I guess the remaining question is which test is in use in the rest of the world.

I suppose what makes me upset about the present situation is something a bit more philosophical.

Over the years we have extended people's lives with a variety of treatments, and ended up with a population of people close to the end of their lives, who really aren't well enough to resist viruses such as this one.

The actions being taken at the moment are extremely drastic, and they affect, above all, the young and able-bodied. Over time these fit young people will become unfit indoors, and/or end up tangling with the police as they try to engage in normal life. It is particularly the young who will also have to try to cope with a destroyed economy after all this is over.

I'm 70 and I have taken tablets for high blood pressure for many years, but am otherwise fairly fit, so I suppose I am on the edge of the group who are more at risk now. I'd rather be given advice as to how to protect myself - advice I could choose to follow or ignore - and accept that with COVID-19 around, life is a bit more dangerous for me right now.

I feel that people in our age group should take the burden of staying well as far as possible, and we should not expect youngsters to sacrifice much of their enjoyment of life for an indeterminate period of time just to keep us safe!

I know a few younger people die from this virus, but I don't think these extremely drastic measures would be being contemplated if it were not for us oldsters.

Maybe another important question is how many of the deaths from COVID-19 were of people close to death in any case.

David
 
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David Bailey said:
Jim,

Thanks for all that information - I guess the remaining question is which test is in use in the rest of the world.

I suppose what makes me upset about the present situation is something a bit more philosophical.

Over the years we have extended people's lives with a variety of treatments, and ended up with a population of people close to the end of their lives, who really aren't well enough to resist viruses such as this one.

The actions being taken at the moment are extremely drastic, and they affect, above all, the young and able-bodied. Over time these fit young people will become unfit indoors, and/or end up tangling with the police as they try to engage in normal life. It is particularly the young who will also have to try to cope with a destroyed economy after all this is over.

I'm 70 and I have taken tablets for high blood pressure for many years, but am otherwise fairly fit, so I suppose I am on the edge of the group who are more at risk now. I'd rather be given advice as to how to protect myself - advice I could choose to follow or ignore - and accept that with COVID-19 around, life is a bit more dangerous for me right now.

I feel that people in our age group should take the burden of staying well as far as possible, and we should not expect youngsters to sacrifice much of their enjoyment of life for an indeterminate period of time just to keep us safe!

I know a few younger people die from this virus, but I don't think these extremely drastic measures would be being contemplated if it were not for us oldsters.

Maybe another important question is how many of the deaths from COVID-19 were of people close to death in any case.

David
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David,

Covid-19 is more serious than flu for younger people too. The death rate from flu is 22,000/36,000,000 or .00061 or .061%

Jim_Smith said:
In a previous post I noted there were 36 million cases of flu this year.

If there were 36 million covid-19 cases and .2% were fatal, that would be 36,000,000 * .002 = 72,000 deaths.

So, looking at the chart below, one can see that even for younger people who are at less risk than the elderly, 10 - 19 year olds, 20 - 29 year olds and 30 - 39 year olds with .2% death rate, 36 million cases in the US would mean many thousands of deaths in each age group (the exact number would depend on the % of population in each age group and the number of people contracting the disease in each age group).

I think this is why the government is taking such drastic action to prevent spread of the disease. Simply isolating the elderly is not going to prevent a large number of deaths, hospitals overrun with patients, economic disruption, etc.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/9796-charts-of-covid-19-fatality-rate-by-age-and-sex/

by age.JPG
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_...e_United_Kingdom#cite_note-Mahase10Feb2020-49
Shortly after confirming that the cause of the cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan was a new coronavirus, Chinese authorities had shared its genetic sequence for international developments of diagnostic kits.[7] The UK subsequently developed a prototype specific laboratory test for the new disease, performed on a sample from the nose, throat, and respiratory tract and tested at PHE's Colindale laboratories in London.[46]​

It looks like the UK test is also specific for covid-19 - it is a "prototype specific laboratory test" probably a PCR test since the quote implies it is based on the genetic sequences provided by China. The references might provide more information but I don't have access to the articles.
 
600 physicians in Tennessee wrote a letter to the governor saying covid-19 is more infectious and 10-34x more deadly than flu.

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/p...place/51-52bc78be-94ba-434e-9be9-9e537474b1ae

Physicians plead with Tennessee governor to order a shelter in place​
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The group of physicians is requesting that effective midnight Sunday, March 22, that Tennessee declare the shelter in place act for fourteen days.​
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Author: WSMV - Nashville​
Published: 11:24 PM EDT March 21, 2020​
Updated: 8:39 AM EDT March 22, 2020​
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More than 600 physicians have come together to sign a letter to Tennessee Governor Bill Lee asking to mandate a shelter in place.​
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The belief is that on an average of 10 patients get both influenza and COVID-19, the ones with influenza will pass it to about 13 people while the other will pass it to about 20 to 25 individuals.​
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"The mortality rate of COVID‐19 is at minimum 10x, and possibly up to 34x deadlier than seasonal influenza," says the letter.​
 
One of the reasons the fatality rate of covid-19 is so high in Italy is that if someone dies for any reason and also has covid-19 they count that death in their totals for the number of covid-19 fatalities even if covid-19 was not the cause of death.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.​


The article lists other factors that make Italy unique: an aging population, high number of smokers, high levels of pollution.
 
Ioannidis seems to try and walk the tightrope though.

The gist of his video (which Vortex posted days ago) which he basically restates in this article is that we're making a lot of decisions on really sketchy data.

No serious authority has challenged that. Its a constraint in this case; a known variable.

He then talks about how disruptive the efforts being taken are to everyone.

Again, "yup" Dr. Ionnidis, we're aware of that.

So, what exactly is he advising we do? That's doesn't seem to be forthcoming from the good doctor. He's like Captain Obvious in this whole thing: "Hey, we really don't have enough data to make informed decisions and the decisions you are making will have real impact on people's lives". Right, we get that. But here's the thing Captain: Any course of action we take, including the extreme "do nothing" course, may cause even greater harm that what we are doing. What would you suggest we do Dr. Ionnidis? Maybe lay that out for us in your next attention seeking video or blog post.
 
David Bailey said:
Jim,

I was just about to concede the whole question about the response to COVID-19 until I read this piece by John Ioannidis:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

It would seem that he thinks very much as I do - but of course with infinitely more experience and knowledge to back up his views.

David
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I don't think you need to concede anything. I think it's possible the whole thing is blown out of proportion. I honestly don't know. I don't think it's a conspiracy but it could be that people are afraid of being blamed for hundreds of thousands or more deaths so they are being overly cautious. I thought the posts saying it was not a serious problem were not argued well so I started arguing against them and I kind of got caught in that pattern. The thing that I think is the best evidence that covid-19 is a big danger are the charts I posted showing exponential growth of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths in the US. I have been following those charts daily, hoping to see them begin to level off, but they continue to increase exponentially. You don't get such mathematically precise phenomenon from idiots blundering around collecting unreliable data, you get it from natural phenomenon like diseases spreading and killing people. I find it fascinating and horrible to see something I studied theoretically in school playing out in real life with the fate of the world at stake.

I may respond to the Ioannidis article more fully later but for now I'll say he is right that the data is unreliable ... but only if you ignore all the reliable data.
 
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David, I'd suggest you read this article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423

Ionnidis: "He said he doesn't know what response would be appropriate. And he acknowledges the situation in northern Italy is a disaster."

He's calling for more data. Right, the entire scientific/medical community is calling for the same thing. The dang question, Dr. Ionnidis, is what do we do because doing nothing IS doing something? His answer? See the quote above. Super valuable. Sheesh.

Here's another response: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/
 
Silence said:
David, I'd suggest you read this article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423

Ionnidis: "He said he doesn't know what response would be appropriate. And he acknowledges the situation in northern Italy is a disaster."

He's calling for more data. Right, the entire scientific/medical community is calling for the same thing. The dang question, Dr. Ionnidis, is what do we do because doing nothing IS doing something? His answer? See the quote above. Super valuable. Sheesh.

Here's another response: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/
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I think if you read the Ioannidis, you will see which side he leans towards.

Every infection is exponential for a bit, because one person infects x other people, and each of these infects x more, etc. Yet this is not a useful way to think of the problem, because all these infections end at some point with most people left uninfected.

The problems here are immense. In particular, while the statement that N people have died from COVID-19 in a particular area may sound crisp and scary, it sure as hell isn't. Presumably it means that COVID-19 was detected in those N people? That might mean anything from the intended implication that they all suffered from a COVID-19 disease and died as a result, to the fact that COVID-19 is becoming common in environments such as care homes and that it was not actually a cause of anything.

Another problem he points out that nasal swabs from such people, often reveal the presence of more than one pathogen. In Britain flu deaths average at 17000 per year, mainly in the sick and elderly. Given that swabs often indicate more than one pathogen, I wonder how many of the UK death toll actually died of flu!

The mere fact that it is older and sicker people who tend to get the really bad symptoms should make everyone cautious about this. Such people often die of a disease other than old age, or whatever is officially wrong with them.

You may say it is better to be safe than sorry, but how many times can we (over) react like this to a new disease? The cost is going to be astronomical if we continue. I mean can any country afford to take such drastic measures - if they did, could they ever do so again?

I have been on two bike rides this weekend because the weather in Britain has suddenly improved. It was clear that many groups of people were out walking. We were all breaking the advice to stay at home except for work or trips to shop or go to the doctor, so I guess some of them had banded together out of a sense of safety in numbers. This has encouraged me, because I think everyone needs to regain a sense of proportion. We were all in the open air, improving our health by exercise, so everyone probably did more good than harm.

I think Ioannidis' article tells me that we are not reacting on a reasoned numerical basis, but simply panicking using very suspect or projected data.

See also this article, which contains comparisons with other frightening over-reactions that the UK almost blundered into.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...ENS-shutting-Britain-REALLY-right-answer.html

David
 
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David Bailey said:
I think if you read the Ioannidis, you will see which side he leans towards.

Every infection is exponential for a bit, because one person infects x other people, and each of these infects x more, etc. Yet this is not a useful way to think of the problem, because all these infections end at some point with most people left uninfected.


David
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I know this. I wrote in my first post of an exponential growth graph that that the exponential phase does not go in indefinitely. At some point the virus has a harder and harder time finding uninfected people to to infect. And it may be the virus is seasonal like the flu and it will fade in the warm weather. Also diseases become less deadly over time because the mutants that don't kill are the ones that spread more because their hosts are alive to spread the disease. Killing your host is not really a good way to survive and multiply. And there already precautions in place and medications and vaccines coming being investigated.

I am not predicting the end of the world. But I don't think anyone knows what would happen if we ignored the virus and went about life as if nothing was happening. It might be a fizzle, It might be millions dead. Ioannidis has his opinions but he doesn't know either.

The difficulty for the government is that if they wait until they know for sure it is going to be serious, by that time so many people will be infected it is too late for "social distancing" to do much good. If the number of cases is increasing by a factor of 10 every ten days, and the latency period for the disease is 2 weeks, then for every 100 people with symptoms of the disease there are between 1000 and 10000 who have it but are not showing symptoms. If the government waits until there are, for example, 20,000 cases showing symptoms then there will be between 200,000 and 2,000,000 cases not yet showing symptoms and whatever precautions they begin to take will not be implemented instantly so the spread will continue. You can reduce the numbers to argue what you estimate is correct, but it is still an estimate. My point is that there is a real, substantial risk of hundreds of thousands or more deaths if the government makes the wrong decision. I don't think anyone wants to take that risk.
 
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David Bailey said:
You may say it is better to be safe than sorry, but how many times can we (over) react like this to a new disease? The cost is going to be astronomical if we continue. I mean can any country afford to take such drastic measures - if they did, could they ever do so again?
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What is the cost of each death? I don't know. I don't know how to calculate it. Part of it would be a value judgement part of it would be economic facts. It's possible that a lot of deaths would cost more than what is happening now. I don't think it is a strong argument either way because no one really knows what the disease can do and no one knows the economic impact of what the government is doing or what will happen in the next few weeks. Any calculations would be theoretical and subject to error.

...

I think Ioannidis' article tells me that we are not reacting on a reasoned numerical basis, but simply panicking using very suspect or projected data.
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You can say they are panicking, another person could call "preferring to err on the side of caution."
You can say they are using suspect data, another person could say they have to make decisions understanding the limitations of the data.

I don't know what the government should do.

What do you think the government should have done and should be doing differently?
 
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.​
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If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.​

I think everyone agrees with this including the government.

The government is being cautious until they know what the situation really is. I think it is not unreasonable because of exponential growth and latency.

What data do you think the government should be collecting that they are failing to collect?

I think it will be a week or two before the rates of hospitalizations and deaths will tell whether the crisis is real or not. I posted a tweet by Trump above where he says as much.
 
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