An article about the Law of Large Numbers in Psychology Today

#61
(Note to Mods: I am not saying Andrew fits this descriptor. I am saying that the special pleading over the untestibility of his type of magic is just too easy for some to dismiss, and we could really do with a psi superhero)
I wouldn't call it "magic" but a kind of receptivity. As for performance on demand, I would liken it to the expectation that a baseball player, even a pro, will hit a home run every time. Just because they don't do it every time doesn't mean they can't hit a home run or help win a ball game but that the task requires a type of focus, coordination, and strength that is difficult to achieve. A manager can't know when his player will hit home runs but can ascertain about how often he will hit them and on that basis determine an appropriate salary level.

Best,

AP
 
#62
Look at Andrew's abilities here and the lists of his incredible successes. Looks like we'd get lots of hits.

And that's what we need. Otherwise it's too easy for the skeptics to appeal to something they (and you) know exists: The delusional, well intentioned fantasist.

(Note to Mods: I am not saying Andrew fits this descriptor. I am saying that the special pleading over the untestibility of his type of magic is just too easy for some to dismiss, and we could really do with a psi superhero)
Malf,
Over 30 years ago, when I was in my frequent deliberately induced OBE phase, I had an OBE in which I deliberately "flew" from my apartment to the mall (the outdoor grassy center) of the University of Arizona campus. I was looking for something unusual that I could later physically travel to and verify. Instead, I heard a rumble in the sky that was growing louder by the second. I looked up and saw a commercial jet liner heading toward me, obviously crashing. I began to run. fly, get the hell out of there in a state of panic and confusion. At that point the OBE morphed into more of a visionary state. I saw a large number of people horribly killed and their spirits leaving their bodies. Then there was a voice over by my mother explaining the situation.

I came back to the physical body in a sweat and wild eyed. I immediately told my live in girlfriend that my mother was going to be killed in an airplane crash within the next couple of months and that the crash would happen on the way to Arizona. A few hours later I called my mother and implored her to not fly that summer. Most unfortunately, she did not listen to me. She thought I was a little crazy for getting carried away with a nightmare. The next two months were desperate for me. I told several friends about what I knew was going to happen. They all thought I was taking a "bad dream" too seriously. I knew it wasn't just a dream and kept saying as much. I was certain about what was going to happen.

Approximately two months later she was flying back to Arizona from a trip to the Detroit area and was killed in a major airline disaster (Northwest flight 255). BTW, I use a nom de internet. You can verify the crash, but won't see the name "Newhill" associated with it.

I put the odds of that prediction being accurate at, minimally, 1 in 20 million. Probably much greater. Some of the background data is muddied (e.g. small plane crashes being mixed in with large commercial plane crash, other countries with less safe air travel being mixed in). My mother didn't fly that much. Maybe one or two trips a year. So her hours in the air were fairly minimal. The fact that I detailed specifically that it would be a flight to Arizona also makes the odds much greater.

The key. to my mind, is that I was certain. This wasn't a guess.

There is another weird element to this case. My mother actually had a ticket to fly out of Detroit on Saturday Aug, 15. On a last minute whim she extended her trip by one day to fly out on Sunday Aug 16 (on the fatal flight).
 
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#63
The key. to my mind, is that I was certain. This wasn't a guess.

There is another weird element to this case. My mother actually had a ticket to fly out of Detroit on Saturday Aug, 15. On a last minute whim she extended her trip by one day to fly out on Sunday Aug 16 (on the fatal flight).
It's a powerful dream and one that I hope would be convincing to anyone who experienced it. It also can be reconciled with a number of my dreams wherein it is clear we make what can be called "appointments" for the future. These appointments are related to our spiritual growth and are more or less fixed, barring extraordinary opportunities to perform service to someone else or add to one's knowledge. I suspect that plane was one of those appointments for your mother. That is what allowed her to give you the warning and is also why she changed the ticket at the last moment. She may not have recalled consciously but knew at a deeper level she had the wrong plane.
 
#64
It's a powerful dream and one that I hope would be convincing to anyone who experienced it. It also can be reconciled with a number of my dreams wherein it is clear we make what can be called "appointments" for the future. These appointments are related to our spiritual growth and are more or less fixed, barring extraordinary opportunities to perform service to someone else or add to one's knowledge. I suspect that plane was one of those appointments for your mother. That is what allowed her to give you the warning and is also why she changed the ticket at the last moment. She may not have recalled consciously but knew at a deeper level she had the wrong plane.
Thanks Andy.

I like the idea of "appointments for the future". Yes. That is exactly how it felt, but I never personally worded it so concisely and appropriately.

As the anniversary of the crash is coming up next week and I still make it a day of observance and remembering, what you said is going to be helpful.

And it is a statistically very significant precog event (looking at it from a scientific standpoint, which helps ease the pain a little). Similar to your backgammon rolls example, I don't think the law of large numbers applies.

Another aside is the close relationship between OBEs and lucid dreams/visions. The experience started out as a basic OBE, but there was the intrusion of the airplane, which was actually there and then the morphing into a very clear/realer than real visionary state. Another reason I'm not entirely sure that OBEs are the spirit "leaving" the body in the normal dualist sense.

Best regards,
Eric
 
#65
Another reason I'm not entirely sure that OBEs are the spirit "leaving" the body in the normal dualist sense.
I think of it as a shifting of attention for the same reason. I can "go" to Los Angeles in my mind just by thinking about it, or Toronto, Paris, or anywhere else. Why wouldn't it work the same way while sleeping? The difference is that in what is called an OBE, we may pick up veridical information. Just thinking of a place doesn't necessarily allow us to view the place as it is.
 
#66
Malf,
Over 30 years ago, when I was in my frequent deliberately induced OBE phase, I had an OBE in which I deliberately "flew" from my apartment to the mall (the outdoor grassy center) of the University of Arizona campus. I was looking for something unusual that I could later physically travel to and verify. Instead, I heard a rumble in the sky that was growing louder by the second. I looked up and saw a commercial jet liner heading toward me, obviously crashing. I began to run. fly, get the hell out of there in a state of panic and confusion. At that point the OBE morphed into more of a visionary state. I saw a large number of people horribly killed and their spirits leaving their bodies. Then there was a voice over by my mother explaining the situation.

I came back to the physical body in a sweat and wild eyed. I immediately told my live in girlfriend that my mother was going to be killed in an airplane crash within the next couple of months and that the crash would happen on the way to Arizona. A few hours later I called my mother and implored her to not fly that summer. Most unfortunately, she did not listen to me. She thought I was a little crazy for getting carried away with a nightmare. The next two months were desperate for me. I told several friends about what I knew was going to happen. They all thought I was taking a "bad dream" too seriously. I knew it wasn't just a dream and kept saying as much. I was certain about what was going to happen.

Approximately two months later she was flying back to Arizona from a trip to the Detroit area and was killed in a major airline disaster (Northwest flight 255). BTW, I use a nom de internet. You can verify the crash, but won't see the name "Newhill" associated with it.

I put the odds of that prediction being accurate at, minimally, 1 in 20 million. Probably much greater. Some of the background data is muddied (e.g. small plane crashes being mixed in with large commercial plane crash, other countries with less safe air travel being mixed in). My mother didn't fly that much. Maybe one or two trips a year. So her hours in the air were fairly minimal. The fact that I detailed specifically that it would be a flight to Arizona also makes the odds much greater.

The key. to my mind, is that I was certain. This wasn't a guess.

There is another weird element to this case. My mother actually had a ticket to fly out of Detroit on Saturday Aug, 15. On a last minute whim she extended her trip by one day to fly out on Sunday Aug 16 (on the fatal flight).
Eric,

Amazing story. I am sorry for the trauma that you and your family had to go through and for the trauma that your mother suffered during the moments leading up to the crash. My gosh.

This introduces a term I use when identifying the nefarious work of fake skeptics, MiHoDeAL. The bucket they assign stories like this to (in sequence of preference),
  • Misidentification/Misremembering/Misinterpretation
  • Hoax
  • Delusion
  • Anecdote
  • Lie
A MiHoDeAL categorization is an ad hoc fallacious way of preserving one's religion when threatened with a case study like this. They usually will stop at anecdote, rather than call the experiencer a liar.

So what got you out of your OBE phase? Just life turning into a reality of lots and lots of work/bills/taxes? Or more esoteric impetus?
 
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#67
Eric,

Amazing story. I am sorry for the trauma that you and your family had to go through and for the trauma that your mother suffered during the moments leading up to the crash. My gosh.

This introduces a term I use when identifying the nefarious work of fake skeptics, MiHoDeAL. The bucket they assign stories like this to (in sequence of preference),
  • Misidentification
  • Hoax
  • Delusion
  • Anecdote
  • Lie
A MiHoDeAL categorization is an ad hoc fallacious way of preserving one's religion when threatened with a case study like this. They usually will stop at anecdote, rather than call the experiencer a liar.
Yes. Skeptics do say those things. In this case I still have contact with one of the people I told about the foreseen event. She could be a witness. Of course a skeptic could come up with all kinds of theories about that to "debunk it".

So what got you out of your OBE phase? Just life turning into a reality of lots and lots of work/bills/taxes? Or more esoteric impetus?
Several factors got me out of that phase. Precoging the crash was one, a major one. Many of my OBEs had precog aspects. I just didn't want to know anymore. I emotionally associated the death of my mother in such a horrible manner with OBEs/precog. I kind of "shut down".

Also, the stuff you mention in one form or another; very material serious responsibilities. Now, at age 55, I'm starting to gently try to ease back into OBE type practices when time and energy allows., but it's much different now qualitatively and spiritually.
 
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#68
I think of it as a shifting of attention for the same reason. I can "go" to Los Angeles in my mind just by thinking about it, or Toronto, Paris, or anywhere else. Why wouldn't it work the same way while sleeping? The difference is that in what is called an OBE, we may pick up veridical information. Just thinking of a place doesn't necessarily allow us to view the place as it is.
I agree. I've said exactly that several times on this forum. People don't like it, but IMO it best fits all of the data as I have experienced it. While it can feel like you leave the body, that perspective doesn't fit all of the data.

I think the NDE is the same thing. Nothing is going anywhere. The mental shift is just away from the body and physical world. When you actually die, it's the same thing. There is nowhere to physically go to. Everything is a state of mind.

When the atheists asks, "Where is this heaven and god of yours? I can look through a telescope and not see them", they have a good point based on faulty understanding of believers. Of course they don't understand that the mind is where all of these dimensions, heavens, hells, gods, aliens, etc live. And the mind is infinite (probably/potentially) and exists before and after it creates a physical body.
 
#69
Nothing is going anywhere. The mental shift is just away from the body and physical world. When you actually die, it's the same thing. There is nowhere to physically go to.
Sometimes I think of our physical bodies as remote cameras, while our "mind" is in a control room somewhere, able to switch cameras at will. That is what allows telepathy, OBEs, etc.
 
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