Coronavirus Pandemic

Can you explain what they did and how they arrived at their conclusions?

"Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives. "

"Might" be false positives? What does this paper mean?

"Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. "

What did they do?

I clicked on the link to the full text and got this:

View attachment 1580
Actually I hope this is right, they are saying people taking care of covid-19 patients show false positives. I can't tell why they concluded that so I can't tell if it is justified, but now I am seeing news stories about hospital workers testing positive so I do hope the research paper is correct and they are mostly false positives.


https://wrko.iheart.com/content/boston-hospital-workers-test-positive-for-covid-19/
At Least 100 Boston Hospital Workers Test Positive For COVID-19
 
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Craig Spencer MD MPH works in a emergency room in New York. He tweets:

"Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.​
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.​
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now.​
I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives​
You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.​
You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.​
You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.​
I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19."​


Here is the full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1242302400762908685.html

Thank you everyone for your incredible messages of support and encouragement.♥️​
Many of you asked what it was like in the ER right now. I want to share a bit with you. Please RT:​
A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline:​
Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.​
On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good.​
Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in.​
You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:​
Cough, shortness of breath, fever.​
They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast.​
You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but...​
You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet​
For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:​
Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.​
Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.​
Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.​
All day...​
Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient...​
By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in.​
Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID.​
When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.​
You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators.​
Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.​
Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful.​
You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.​
The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know???​
You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family.​
You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.​
Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.​
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.​
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives​
You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.​
You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.​
You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.​
I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.​
Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.​
And every day I'll come to work for you​

From the twitter comments:

A lot of drama, but the numbers don't support it. There simply are not that many covid-19 admissions in New York City. Just look at the numbers.

As of today there are around 1,100 deaths attributed to covid-19 in the US since January 19, 2020 (not so many). Around half of those are in New York City. So say 550 patients that we will assume were put on ventilators in the ICU in an attempt to save their lives.

But they didn't all show up all at once. lets be generous and say they appeared in the ICU over a 45 day period. So that like 12 a day.

Of course NYC has several hospitals. So a single hospital isn't getting 12 new ICU patients a day. In fact NYC has 7 hospitals with ICUs. So now we're looking at 1 or 2 covid-19 admissions per day per hospital (I know this is all back of the envelop, but I always find back of the envelop a good way to begin to think about an issue).

Now I think it is reasonable to assume, based on what we know about who is hit the worst by covid-19 (e.g. the elderly with serious underlying health problems), that some of these patients would have been heading into the ICU anyhow. So I think it's safe to say that the number of admissions, over and above what the hospitals would normally experience during the flu season, is closer to 1 per day - far from the catastrophe that was described.

Caveat being that I recognize that we can't really spread the admissions out over a 45 day period because admissions have been increasing. Also, patients aren't on the vent for a single day. They stay on the vent until they die while more patients stack up.

But this highlights one of the issues with this whole situation - there is no good data being dispersed. What is the admission situation in NYC? Numbers, not anecdotes would be helpful.
 
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Something I have been pondering - an increase in homicide rates at the lockdown continues. I mean all those couples who have bad relationships, stuck together, unable to see their secret lovers, no where to go to get away from each other, their financial situation growing worse, the kids screaming and fighting.
 
Here's some data about deaths resulting from unemployment:
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/will-deaths-of-despair-outpace-deaths-from-coronavirus/

"Lower bound. If the unemployment rate increases by 5 points as a result of the various lockdowns, then 294,170 additional lives will be lost, not from coronavirus, but from deaths of despair.

"Mid-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 16.5 points (as predicted by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin), then 970,761 additional lives will be lost to deaths of despair.

"Upper bound. And if the unemployment rate increases by 10-fold — which is what we are already seeing in several states — then 1,853,271 lives will be lost to deaths of despair from government orders to lock down, shut down, and shelter in place."


Also this is some interesting data showing Italy is high in deaths, but has been higher before without any pandamic or lockdown. (The whole video is interesting but have the timestamp for this specific part.)

 
David,

We don't have socialized medicine (yet) in the US. If you have medical insurance they will milk it dry. They will perform every fancy procedure and test and treatment that is remotely related to your symptoms until your money runs out. Then you go on medicaid (insurance for the poor) and they start over.
Are you saying, in effect, that the problem in the NYC hospital is that lawyers force dying patients on to respirators when they are unlikely to benefit from them?

Somehow we need to try to reconcile the NYC crisis with some of the facts that seem to be emerging about COVID-19. Is this doctor someone you feel you can trust not to be creating propaganda?

David
 
Are you saying, in effect, that the problem in the NYC hospital is that lawyers force dying patients on to respirators when they are unlikely to benefit from them?
I didn't mean that. I thought you were saying they are only treating those patients because of the covid-19 "scare". I tried to explain why that was unlikely. I might have exaggerated a bit.
Somehow we need to try to reconcile the NYC crisis with some of the facts that seem to be emerging about COVID-19. Is this doctor someone you feel you can trust not to be creating propaganda?

David
You need to reconcile the NYC crisis, the Italy crisis, the China crisis, the Spain crisis,..

https://english.elpais.com/society/...crisis-this-is-the-war-of-our-generation.html

Spanish hospital workers on frontline of coronavirus crisis: “This is the war of our generation”

“I’ve never experienced anything like it. The ICU [Intensive Care Unit] is a very intensive job, but now we are overwhelmed, you can’t even leave to pee,” says a doctor at the Getafe hospital in the Madrid region, which has been hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak. Intensive Care Units have become filled with seriously ill patients, some sedated, others intubated. All are hooked up to various tubes. They are alone, in some cases until their death. All have the same diagnosis: Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.​
The hospital wards face a seemingly unstoppable avalanche of patients. On Sunday, 173 more people were placed in intensive care in Spain, bringing the total to 1,785. More than 700 are in wards in Madrid, which has doubled its capacity.​

What are the facts that are emerging about covid-19? Can you list them? I think that would help clarify matters for discussion.

What looks like propaganda depends on one's personal bias. I don't think my post was propaganda.

At first I thought Bart's post might be Chinese propaganda - impenetrable jargon used to imply there were fewer cases in China than reported - but after I saw the headlines about the workers in US hospitals having covid-19 my views changed and now I hope the paper is actually correct.

On the data I am following, I am seeing in the last few days a moderation the number of new cases, I can't tell yet if it is noise, a return to the mean after an increase in availability of test kits, or the rate of new cases is really slowing. I hope it is the latter.

I don't know how to get people to agree on facts. It is impossible in the field of paranormal research, politics, and, evidently, epidemiology.

Here is today's data.

owid_cases_20200326.JPG



owid_deaths_20200326.JPG
 
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Here's some data about deaths resulting from unemployment:
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/will-deaths-of-despair-outpace-deaths-from-coronavirus/

"Lower bound. If the unemployment rate increases by 5 points as a result of the various lockdowns, then 294,170 additional lives will be lost, not from coronavirus, but from deaths of despair.

"Mid-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 16.5 points (as predicted by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin), then 970,761 additional lives will be lost to deaths of despair.

"Upper bound. And if the unemployment rate increases by 10-fold — which is what we are already seeing in several states — then 1,853,271 lives will be lost to deaths of despair from government orders to lock down, shut down, and shelter in place."

Also this is some interesting data showing Italy is high in deaths, but has been higher before without any pandamic or lockdown. (The whole video is interesting but have the timestamp for this specific part.)

This is interesting - I have been looking for data that shows economic growth saves lives - to post in the other (Trump) thread.

However those huge numbers of deaths seemed to me to be surprisingly large when compared to the total population. I looked in the article and I see they are accumulated over several years.

"1% increase in the unemployment rate sustained over a period of six years has been associated (during the past three decades) with increases of 36,887 total deaths"

"Following the Brenner (1976) model, these figures all reflect the estimated cumulative impact of an increase in unemployment on mortality over a five-year lag period. "
 
Also this is some interesting data showing Italy is high in deaths, but has been higher before without any pandamic or lockdown. (The whole video is interesting but have the timestamp for this specific part.)


I agree that is a good way to analyze the situation - comparing numbers of deaths. I have been looking for something like that for the US and haven't found anything like it.

However I don't think it is a good system to use to decide if precautions are justified.

If we wait for the blip to "go above the line" then it is too late for the precautions to work. And if we take precautions then we don't know what would have happened if we hadn't.

A person can be infected with covid-19 and contagious for two weeks before they show symptoms. At any given time there can be more than 10 times as many people who are contagious but are not yet showing symptoms as there are people who are already sick. That means you have to act when the number of known cases is still very low if you want to stop the spread.

The rationale for the drastic precautions is based on what happened in Wuhan and the exponential growth of cases and deaths in individual countries. Each country is responding according to what is happening in that country. In the US there are some actions at the national level but each of the 50 states is also reacting individually according to the situation in that state.

If Britain is having lower than normal number of deaths and they see an incipient crisis developing - too small at present to show up on those charts, should they wait until they have proof of a huge number of deaths or should they try to save lives by taking precautions when they first see a rapid growth in cases?

If anyone is interested, the graphs from the video are here (scroll down):
http://www.euromomo.eu

Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.​
The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.
Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19.​
 
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Reality is often complicated and does not always accommodate the human desire for simple answers.

I wrote in a previous post the severe precautions are probably based on what happened in Wuhan and on local rates of infection.
The data that I think is important to consider is the exponential growth of cases and deaths - you don't get precise mathematical behavior like exponential growth from unreliable data, you get it from natural phenomena like diseases spreading and killing people. And more recently hospitals in the US and Spain in addition to Italy and China that are being swamped with patients with "flu like" symptoms.

As I've also said you have to consider the limitations of the data including limitations on extrapolations which I've pointed out myself, and that different locations are in different situations.

I've also posted about how Trump wants to get the economy going again as soon as possible.

Also consider, the groups who are saying the virus is very dangerous are not a single entity. There are different estimates of the risk. If some of these estimates are overblown that doesn't mean the more moderate ones that might still justify severe precautions are also wrong. I've seen estimates that I think are too high and other estimates I think are too low.

Here is a new twist: This article claims (somewhat dubiously, see below) there is a group deliberately overstating the risk for political purposes - trying to get local officials to shut down the economy when it is not necessary. However, it looks to me like the article itself is politically motivated.
.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/2...nicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/
Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns​
How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.​
...​
In New York, Covid Act Now claimed nearly 5,400 New Yorkers would’ve been hospitalized by March 19. The actual number of hospitalizations is around 750. The site also claimed nearly 13,000 New York hospitalizations by March 23. The actual number was around 2,500.​
...​
In Georgia, COVID Act Now predicted 688 hospitalizations by March 23. By that date, they had around 800 confirmed cases in the whole state, and fewer than 300 hospitalized.​

I agree with some of what the article is saying regarding the limitations of the data much of which is acknowledged by the web site they are criticizing, but I think the article is missing the point that when a disease is spreading exponentially, a factor of two or four can be just a matter of days - some of the predictions are not as bad as the article claims. In Georgia the group predicted 688 hospitalizations on 3/23 when there were less than 300 by that date, but then there were 509 hospitalizations by 7pm on 3/26.

ga.JPG

And the article may have overstated the risks in NY but based on what is happening in NY hospitals it seems the severe precautions were justified.

In any case, it is possible the virus is very dangerous and merits severe precautions where it has taken hold locally (ie NYC, Madrid, and Lombardy), but there could be other locations where drastic measures were taken that were not merited by the conditions there.

I think it is best to look at each location and consider the situation there rather than assume a universal principle and apply it all over the world.
 
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Something I have been pondering - an increase in homicide rates at the lockdown continues. I mean all those couples who have bad relationships, stuck together, unable to see their secret lovers, no where to go to get away from each other, their financial situation growing worse, the kids screaming and fighting.
Damn, Eric, have I just liked two social-matters-related posts of yours?! Never thought such thing can happen, knowing all our intense disagreements on social matters. Seems there can be something society-related for us to agree on, after all. :eek:
 
Reality is often complicated and does not always accommodate the human desire for simple answers.
That is right, and I think the problem here is that it is easy to lose the openness to other possibilities that this site is really all about.

This official British annoncement was published just over a week ago:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.
Doesn't that make you at least wonder what is really going on? Was it really downgrading the danger from the virus just days before the lockdown?

I have already posted one or two other informed views that differ totally from the official position.

What might this mean?

1) This might just be an awful pandemic - the view that you support.

2) There might be some deliberate intent behind this. We both know that politics has become pretty wild in recent times, and this crisis has come at a frighteningly 'convenient' time for some politicians, worldwide.

The videos I posted were of experts pointing out that the evidence cannot meaningfully be interpreted in the way it has been. Fine - but everyone says that we have plain evidence in the form of overflowing hospitals.

I guess that by now, after reading this site for so long, I have a much reduced fear of death, even though I have only meagre direct psychic experience. However I went out the other day for my permitted hour of exercise and I met a man who is probably about 15 years younger than me. I had not seen for some years. Obviously he had aged, but he was clearly close to panic. He wasn't open to any sort of discussion, and someone else turned up to talk to him, so I went on my way.

If this has been orchestrated (hypothesis 2), part of the trick must be to trick enough people into feeling that they are seriously ill when they have a trivial infection or are perfectly well that they flood the hospitals and die from the panic. We know that something like this happens to people who are put under a Voodoo spell - is this the equivalent?

Trump has said that the rise in 'infections' (perhaps they should be called virus detections) may just be because a lot more tests are being done. This will obviously happen, and yet the number of virus detections is normally published without that caveat. If this was done deliberately, then the virus variant must have been about long enough that it is scattered all over the place.

Above all, keep discussing - remember that unless I post in red, I am just a user here like everyone else.

David
 
That is right, and I think the problem here is that it is easy to lose the openness to other possibilities that this site is really all about.

This official British annoncement was published just over a week ago:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Doesn't that make you at least wonder what is really going on? Was it really downgrading the danger from the virus just days before the lockdown?

I have already posted one or two other informed views that differ totally from the official position.

What might this mean?

1) This might just be an awful pandemic - the view that you support.

2) There might be some deliberate intent behind this. We both know that politics has become pretty wild in recent times, and this crisis has come at a frighteningly 'convenient' time for some politicians, worldwide.

The videos I posted were of experts pointing out that the evidence cannot meaningfully be interpreted in the way it has been. Fine - but everyone says that we have plain evidence in the form of overflowing hospitals.

I guess that by now, after reading this site for so long, I have a much reduced fear of death, even though I have only meagre direct psychic experience. However I went out the other day for my permitted hour of exercise and I met a man who is probably about 15 years younger than me. I had not seen for some years. Obviously he had aged, but he was clearly close to panic. He wasn't open to any sort of discussion, and someone else turned up to talk to him, so I went on my way.

If this has been orchestrated (hypothesis 2), part of the trick must be to trick enough people into feeling that they are seriously ill when they have a trivial infection or are perfectly well that they flood the hospitals and die from the panic. We know that something like this happens to people who are put under a Voodoo spell - is this the equivalent?

Trump has said that the rise in 'infections' (perhaps they should be called virus detections) may just be because a lot more tests are being done. This will obviously happen, and yet the number of virus detections is normally published without that caveat. If this was done deliberately, then the virus variant must have been about long enough that it is scattered all over the place.

Above all, keep discussing - remember that unless I post in red, I am just a user here like everyone else.

David
This is at the top of the page you linked to:

db.JPG
 
That is right, and I think the problem here is that it is easy to lose the openness to other possibilities that this site is really all about.

This official British annoncement was published just over a week ago:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Doesn't that make you at least wonder what is really going on? Was it really downgrading the danger from the virus just days before the lockdown?

I have already posted one or two other informed views that differ totally from the official position.

What might this mean?

1) This might just be an awful pandemic - the view that you support.

2) There might be some deliberate intent behind this. We both know that politics has become pretty wild in recent times, and this crisis has come at a frighteningly 'convenient' time for some politicians, worldwide.

The videos I posted were of experts pointing out that the evidence cannot meaningfully be interpreted in the way it has been. Fine - but everyone says that we have plain evidence in the form of overflowing hospitals.

I guess that by now, after reading this site for so long, I have a much reduced fear of death, even though I have only meagre direct psychic experience. However I went out the other day for my permitted hour of exercise and I met a man who is probably about 15 years younger than me. I had not seen for some years. Obviously he had aged, but he was clearly close to panic. He wasn't open to any sort of discussion, and someone else turned up to talk to him, so I went on my way.

If this has been orchestrated (hypothesis 2), part of the trick must be to trick enough people into feeling that they are seriously ill when they have a trivial infection or are perfectly well that they flood the hospitals and die from the panic. We know that something like this happens to people who are put under a Voodoo spell - is this the equivalent?

Trump has said that the rise in 'infections' (perhaps they should be called virus detections) may just be because a lot more tests are being done. This will obviously happen, and yet the number of virus detections is normally published without that caveat. If this was done deliberately, then the virus variant must have been about long enough that it is scattered all over the place.

Above all, keep discussing - remember that unless I post in red, I am just a user here like everyone else.

David
It does make me wonder what is going on. I don't know.

They changed the classification, they say, because the case fatality rate is lower than they previously thought. But what is the number? It might be higher than flu but lower than ebola. I don't know what the purpose of the classification is - maybe it is appropriate to change the classification and also have a national lock-down. I think it must be because they also say on that page there is a need for a coordinated response and they link to the government's plan.

I think there are people playing politics with this issue, in the US I am sure of it, but I think they are opportunistic I don't think the whole thing is manufactured.
 
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It does make me wonder what is going on. I don't know.

They changed the classification, they say, because the case fatality rate is lower than they previously thought. But what is the number? It might be higher than flu but lower than ebola. I don't know what the purpose of the classification is - maybe it is appropriate to change the classification and also have a national lock-down. I think it must be because they also say on that page there is a need for a coordinated response and they link to the government's plan.

I think there are people playing politics with this issue, in the US I am sure of it, but I think they are opportunistic I don't think the whole thing is manufactured.

Based on the data available

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-cases-by-country
and
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-deaths-by-country

The fatality rate for covid-19 in the UK is 422 / 9529 or 4.4%

The fatality rate for sesonal flu is .1 %

In the US the death rate for covid-19 is 1050/69194 = 1.5% or 15 times greater than for flu.

Maybe in the UK they figured out the fatality rate is closer to 1.5% than 4.4% and that is why they reclassified covid-19?

In the US we had 22,000 deaths from flu. 22.000 x 15 = 330,000 deaths potentially caused by covid-19.
This is about ten times the number of deaths from car crashes.
 
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Maybe in the UK they figured out the fatality rate is closer to 1.5% than 4.4% and that is why they reclassified covid-19?
I may be paranoid, but I fear a takeover by people who want to lock down entire populations. All sorts of things can go on under the sort of lockdown we are suffering here - I don't suppose even journalists can move anywhere.

David
 
In the US the death rate for covid-19 is 1050/69194 = 1.5% or 15 times greater than for flu.
The fundamental problem here is that if only pretty sick people die from COVID-19, they might be dying anyway and if COVID-19 was detected, they would be classes as dying from it. My suspicion is that COVID-19 has been around for much longer than 3 months, but was never tracked.

David
 
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