Coronavirus Pandemic

The majority in the US also support a small, but very costly minority, that are not assuming responsibility for their own health, regardless of age. The obese alcoholic diabetic with all kinds of associated illnesses, from cardiac issues to renal failure causes every member of an insurance risk pool to have increased premiums. Avoidable healthcare conditions are responsible for 30% to 40% of all healthcare expenditures in the US - obesity is the biggest of these conditions.
Okay.

I was responding to David's over-the-top statement regarding what's currently being asked of young people in this effort to manage the COVID-19 outbreak.

For what its worth, there's plenty of evidence that would challenge the notion that alcoholism is an "avoidable healthcare condition", but that's probably a discussion for another place.
 
YES - An absolute, true fact
Come on Sam, it is not an absolute, true fact. We should start another thread if we really want to discuss this, but there is all kinds of open questions we have yet to answer when it comes to understanding obesity. I've already commented on alcoholism.

The insurance companies are clearly biased by their own economics to classify as many conditions as avoidable as possible. This classification can be leveraged economically where as diseases caused by genetics or the environment are much more likely to flow through as unavoidable claims against the insurance company's collected premiums.

There is such a thing as "nuance" here gang.
 
Following on from Votex's link, it would seem that another ten experts in the field are objecting to the lockdown:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/

David
"I will be surprised if number of deaths in Israel surpasses ten, and even five now with the restrictions."
Los Angeles Times, 22nd March 2020



March 29, 2020:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/woman...th-israeli-fatality-overall-and-3rd-in-a-day/
Woman dies of coronavirus, 15th Israeli fatality overall and 3rd in a day​
 
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"I will be surprised if number of deaths in Israel surpasses ten, and even five now with the restrictions."
Los Angeles Times, 22nd March 2020



March 29, 2020:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/woman...th-israeli-fatality-overall-and-3rd-in-a-day/
Woman dies of coronavirus, 15th Israeli fatality overall and 3rd in a day​
That is the sort of sniping comment I do not expect of you. The point I am making is that there are a lot of experts - including a team from Oxford University - who are dissenting over this draconian scheme.

For example, here is one dissenter:
Dr Michael Levitt is Professor of biochemistry at Stanford University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), a member of the National Academy of Sciences and received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.

He writes,
"To put things in proportion, the number of deaths of coronavirus in Italy is 10% of the number of deaths of influenza in the country between 2016-2017. "

David
 
For example, here is one dissenter:
Careful David. Read Levitt carefully and you'll see he supports a lot of the measures you are calling "draconian". A dissenter? Hardly.

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html

Another reason the infection rate has slowed has to do with the physical distance guidelines. “You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said. “Currently, I am most worried about the U.S. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”
 
That is the sort of sniping comment I do not expect of you. The point I am making is that there are a lot of experts - including a team from Oxford University - who are dissenting over this draconian scheme.

For example, here is one dissenter:
Dr Michael Levitt is Professor of biochemistry at Stanford University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), a member of the National Academy of Sciences and received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.

He writes,
"To put things in proportion, the number of deaths of coronavirus in Italy is 10% of the number of deaths of influenza in the country between 2016-2017. "

David
My point is that this expert's models do not make accurate predictions. How is that a snipe?

And the flu got started before corona virus so naturally there will be more cases of flu. If covid-19 is spreading exponentially it will increase tenfold rapidly, So saying it is only 10% of flu is not a convincing argument.

If you want to argue based on the number of experts (which I don't, I would rather focus on the data and the arguments) remember I already posted about 600 doctors who believe covid-19 is more infectious and 10-34x more deadly than flu.


600 physicians in Tennessee wrote a letter to the governor saying covid-19 is more infectious and 10-34x more deadly than flu.

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/p...place/51-52bc78be-94ba-434e-9be9-9e537474b1ae

Physicians plead with Tennessee governor to order a shelter in place​
The group of physicians is requesting that effective midnight Sunday, March 22, that Tennessee declare the shelter in place act for fourteen days.​
Author: WSMV - Nashville​
Published: 11:24 PM EDT March 21, 2020​
Updated: 8:39 AM EDT March 22, 2020​
More than 600 physicians have come together to sign a letter to Tennessee Governor Bill Lee asking to mandate a shelter in place.​
...​
The belief is that on an average of 10 patients get both influenza and COVID-19, the ones with influenza will pass it to about 13 people while the other will pass it to about 20 to 25 individuals.​
"The mortality rate of COVID‐19 is at minimum 10x, and possibly up to 34x deadlier than seasonal influenza," says the letter.​
 
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Redid my post because I just found the very source just referenced by Dr. Brix -

http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Understand - this is only US centric... but still, some may have interest in this
The impression I am getting from this as well as the UK study is that they want to prevent the breakdown of the healthcare system due to demand exceeding capacity.

From the article Sam linked:

"In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care."​

I think one of the many the reasons for this concern is that it would traumatize the public if they see stories on the news of people dying in the streets and in the waiting rooms of hospitals after waiting hours or days without being seen or treated. If all the people who normally need emergency care and hospitalization can't get it because of overwhelmed hospitals. And if corpses are stacked up against the walls or in mass graves.

I am not predicting this I am saying politicians are afraid of it. If you think the 2016 election made people crazy (on whatever side) the above would be that times 100 or 1000 or more.

And if there is a conspiracy in the US (and I'm not saying there is), it is by independent groups like healthdata.org (funded by Bill Gates) and Coronavirus Act Now.
 
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If someone is dying of cancer or Alzheimer's disease or something like that, do the doctors put them on a respirator in the ICU if they get covid-19?

Could part of the high number of fatalities among the elderly be due to the fact that some are not given intensive care because it is a kindness to let them go or when doctors decide to give priority care for younger people?
 
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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095
By DAN DIAMOND
03/29/2020 08:03 PM EDT

The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence.​
The agency allowed for the drugs to be "donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said in a statement, announcing that Sandoz donated 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the stockpile and Bayer donated 1 million doses of chloroquine.​
The article says there is scant evidence, but there are studies in other countries that show it works.

https://www.newswars.com/french-stu...-may-be-highly-effective-against-coronavirus/
The anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) was reportedly found to be highly effective against the coronavirus in a new study from renowned research professor Didier Raoult and the French government is planning to conduct extensive trials on the drug in the near future.​
https://www.thejakartapost.com/life...d-effective-on-covid-19-chinese-official.html
Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19: Chinese official​
 
https://www.oann.com/spain-returns-...returns-defective-covid-19-test-kits-to-china
Spain Returns Defective COVID-19 Test Kits To China​
The Spanish government faced immense criticism following the purchase of more than half a million kits, 60,000 of which were found to be only 30 percent effective.​
I have a similar experience with amazon.com most of the items they sell are made in China. Some are very good quality but I also return a large fraction of what I buy because they are defective or not as described.
 
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The crisis should peak in about 2 weeks in the US.

80% of cases come from someone not showing symptoms. This is why people are told to stay at home. It is why isolating only symptomatic people would not be effective.

People are told to stay at home to reduce deaths and also to lower the peak utilization of hospital resources so swamping of hospitals is minimized as much as possible.

If you put something over your face it will help prevent you from infecting someone else.

Redid my post because I just found the very source just referenced by Dr. Brix -

http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Understand - this is only US centric... but still, some may have interest in this
This news segment mentions the healthdata.org site.
https://www.boston25news.com/video/?id=4867191

Interesting points:
  • The healthdata.org site data shows the deaths per day and hospital resource use will peak in about 2 weeks in the US.
  • Healthdata.org is run by researchers at the University of Washington.
  • Doctor Mike Gibson at Beth Israel Hospital in Boston says effects of social distancing will influence things two weeks later.
  • "What we do today impacts things two weeks from now - that's when people become critically ill."
  • Usually a person with covid-19 can infect 2.5 people, by reducing that to 1.5 with social distancing you can reduce the number of infected from 406 to 15. [This is somewhat vague I don't know it that is 2 weeks later, the entire outbreak, or something else.]
  • Hospitals may be swamped in 2 weeks but staying at home could help ameliorate or prevent that.
  • In China 80% of cases came from someone who was not showing symptoms. [This is probably the main reason for the stay at home orders. It is why isolating only cases showing symptoms will not do much good.]
  • Wearing a mask can help prevent you from infecting someone else.
  • "Put something over your face, it will help prevent you from infecting someone else."
The last point is something I have heard elsewhere, the N95 masks can help prevent you from being infected but surgical masks or something simpler could help prevent you from infecting others if you have covid-19 and don't know it.

I suppose in a week or two we will know if the stay at home orders were justified.
 
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The majority in the US also support a small, but very costly minority, that are not assuming responsibility for their own health, regardless of age. The obese alcoholic diabetic with all kinds of associated illnesses, from cardiac issues to renal failure causes every member of an insurance risk pool to have increased premiums. Avoidable healthcare conditions are responsible for 30% to 40% of all healthcare expenditures in the US - obesity is the biggest of these conditions.
I mostly agree but when assigning blame I think you also have to take into account that corporations are using every psychological trick known to science to push unhealthy foods on the public. IMHO the local grocery store is like a drug pusher. They use science (psychology) to get you to buy junk food. The food industry is killing more people than the drug cartels.

Also, incorrect information about nutrition science has been propagated by scientists, governments, and corporations. Even if individuals try to take responsibility for their health, they don't have accurate information.

If there is an obesity epidemic, is it because people changed or is it because of some new factor that is influencing people?
Obesity not a small minority: "The prevalence of obesity was 42.4% in 2017~2018 " Diabetes is less common but prevalent: "9.4 percent of the U.S. population –have diabetes "

So it is not all the fault of individuals.
 
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I am going to hang it out there - by mid-June, my prediction for the US is a MAX number of 35K deaths attributed to COVID-19.

If we hit 35K whereby the reality is that this is 35K more deaths than what would otherwise be the number of deaths from all other causes, this would definitely justify the serious actions being taken to ensure this number is not higher and to ensure that measures taken so far and which will be further taken are done so to ensure the usual care required for ALL that need care from any illness that would justify/receive care in normal conditions is not compromised and that the care be of the same level for the additional COVID-19 sufferers.

This is a true, serious challenge for the US if the US is to accomplish the above stated goal.

Well enough modeling is in (in the US) that is sound, has a low range, has a high range, has a medium (expected) highest likelihood and which, when daily new input is placed into these models, can allow for realistic adjustments to these models... and from this information, decisions as to what is needed where are better determined and these is done in consideration of what is actually possible to do.

I may adjust my prediction MAX from time to time in this thread.

Ohhhh... I am no scientist or Dr. and have no "degree" in number crunching.
 
Jim, I believe it was you who asked about why I said the economy was a bigger bubble than before. I just came across this article which gives a very short overview.

"Today, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing (QE) instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history."
- Scott Minerd “Global CIO Outlook”, August 21, 2012

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/f...-experiencing-end-game-great-debt-super-cycle

Take note that most people are not aware that for about half a year now, the Federal Reserve has been pumping money into the market with what are known as repo loans. As one person put it bailouts were occurring…just on the sly.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/06/whats-behind-the-feds-bailout-of-the-repo-market/
 
The crisis should peak in about 2 weeks in the US.

80% of cases come from someone not showing symptoms. This is why people are told to stay at home. It is why isolating only symptomatic people would not be effective.

People are told to stay at home to reduce deaths and also to lower the peak utilization of hospital resources so swamping of hospitals is minimized as much as possible.

If you put something over your face it will help prevent you from infecting someone else.



This news segment mentions the healthdata.org site.
https://www.boston25news.com/video/?id=4867191

Interesting points:
  • The healthdata.org site data shows the deaths per day and hospital resource use will peak in about 2 weeks in the US.
  • Healthdata.org is run by researchers at the University of Washington.
  • Doctor Mike Gibson at Beth Israel Hospital in Boston says effects of social distancing will influence things two weeks later.
  • "What we do today impacts things two weeks from now - that's when people become critically ill."
  • Usually a person with covid-19 can infect 2.5 people, by reducing that to 1.5 with social distancing you can reduce the number of infected from 406 to 15. [This is somewhat vague I don't know it that is 2 weeks later, the entire outbreak, or something else.]
  • Hospitals may be swamped in 2 weeks but staying at home could help ameliorate or prevent that.
  • In China 80% of cases came from someone who was not showing symptoms. [This is probably the main reason for the stay at home orders. It is why isolating only cases showing symptoms will not do much good.]
  • Wearing a mask can help prevent you from infecting someone else.
  • "Put something over your face, it will help prevent you from infecting someone else."
The last point is something I have heard elsewhere, the N95 masks can help prevent you from being infected but surgical masks or something simpler could help prevent you from infecting others if you have covid-19 and don't know it.

I suppose in a week or two we will know if the stay at home orders were justified.
I must ask once again - what did these hospitals do during a bad flu year + the H1N1 outbreak that infected 85 million Americans and directly killed 12,500, including children. It was a bad respiratory disease that required ICU and ventilator utilization to sustain life in the worst cases. That was in 2009. I don't recall a hysteria or hospitals screaming about lack of capacity. The economy didn't shut down. The media played it cool and so did Obama. I do recall some dire predictions/modeling from the infectious disease geeks, but they were ignored, thankfully.
 
I understand, Eric... but the key may be "time frame" related to those numbers... do we know over what time frame the H1N1 2009 number of 12,500 spans?

On a different note, the "world" reaction may, in hind sight, be viewed as an overreaction (maybe a massive one). But the problem isn't "the truth",,, it's perception. And so Trump and the response of his administration is under such a biased microscope, he's forced to err on the side of caution measured by "the world's perception as to what is merited."

I can understand how various governments view this whole nightmare as an opportunity to run various "real world ops" and for all sorts of reasons. Manipulating the media... tweaking the media that is all too ready to manipulate the public... all that stuff seems likely to be "in play."
 
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