Coronavirus Pandemic

#41
Jim Smith raises some great questions. Here's a few more...

A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.

While current events may be a black swan for many people, it wasn’t for all.

Today I want to address a big question…Why were we so unprepared for this? How could this crisis have been foreseen?

But it WAS. Specifically so, and thus far, almost exactly as it’s playing out.

Have you heard of Event 201 which occurred on October 18th, 2019? http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html

“Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.”

They put the start from pigs in Brazil, but otherwise it’s almost exactly the same as what is occurring today. I recommend at the very least you watch the Highlight Reel on this page. http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html

(I’m planning to watch through all the other videos on that page too but have not yet.)

Look, I do believe in coincidence. And definitely in synchronicity. But this leaves me with some questions…

The CDC was there. Specifically, Stephen Redd, MD, director of the CDC’s Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response. https://www.cdc.gov/media/spokesperson/redd/redd-P.pdf

I know a lot of people are blaming Trump for this situation. I agree he hasn’t handled it well. But to put all the focus on the orange man (as our media and people love to do) is the skip over the fact the one man does not make up the entire government.

An argument could certainly be made that this happened so close to events that we weren’t prepared for it. But this isn’t the first time exercises or “war games” such as this have been done. Dr. Redd was the “incident commander for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response.”

Where is the head of our preparedness and response now? Why has our response in the USA so horrible, when we foresaw it coming?

Dr. Redd said “This is not a problem we can test our way out of.”
https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-tested-o...testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html

When he said that, sure. But it could have happened earlier…if only we had been prepared.

The CDC didn’t just seem inept, but actually looks like they’ve been striving to bumble up testing by trying to setup their own testing protocol. https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

Was this simply because they wanted to make money off their own test? Or did they want to stall the testing so this pandemic was made worse?

Understand that the CDC does not have a good track record on testing. Remember the Swine Flu? We saw the CDC stop testing and counting cases, while reporting huge numbers. Investigative reporter Sharyl Attkisson found this out before she left CBS because of their clamp down on real journalism. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/swine-flu-cases-overestimated/

Why was the CDC sending out flawed test kits? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...pped-to-states-are-flawed-cdc-says/ar-BBZWV1C Caught unawares or striving to dampen our response?

Meanwhile, our government is classifying top-level meetings regarding the virus. Why? What are they trying to hide?

Reuters reported this was “an unusual step that has restricted information and hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM

I highly, highly recommend reading this article by investigative journalist Whitney Webb. I started following her work surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein case a few months back as it goes deep. She’s good!
https://www.mintpressnews.com/us-in...sified-9-11-like-coronavirus-response/265687/

(Remember it’s the same government handling this response as said Epstein killed himself because of the perfect storm of screw-ups. They’ll say the same thing about this pandemic soon enough.)

What Webb says is that our intelligence communities are playing a huge role in directing the emergency response.

Again, I ask why? Is this a health epidemic? Or is it an intelligence operation?

Look at these facts. Then you can clearly see that they want this virus (whatever it’s true origin) to impact us in a big way. This was foreseen. We could have responded like South Korea did with great testing early on but instead we got caught with our pants down. It serves their agenda. We will see that unfold in real-time now.

Webb sums up, “The coming government response, the agencies largely responsible for crafting it and its classified nature deserve public scrutiny now, particularly given the federal government’s tendency to not let “a serious crisis to go to waste,” as former President Obama’s then-chief of staff Rahm Emanuel infamously said during the 2008 financial crisis. Indeed, during a time of panic — over a pandemic and over a simultaneous major economic downturn — concern over government overreach is warranted, particularly now given the involvement of intelligence agencies and the classification of planning for an explosion of domestic cases that the government believes is only weeks away.”

Once you see that possibility, you can then to ask where is this headed? You can make predictions with better accuracy.

I’ve been telling people we’re going to be on quarantine very soon. Yesterday it happened for me. Watch it spread throughout the USA further. Watch us go from “sheltered” to “full-on quarantine.”

You can see this playing out almost exactly as described in Event 201…as if according to plan. They talk about steps that are still to come in their videos though that will be dependent on how many deaths we start seeing. Watch. Be prepared.
 
#42
If the global elite are so skilled as to be able to pull off a purposeful pandemic, it seems counter productive to "watch and be prepared". What would it matter? They're well beyond my means. ;)

I guess we could just go with the known phenomena of novel viruses making the leap from animal to human as the likely explanation, supported by large human organizations that all too often suffer from inefficiency and good old fashioned human error.
 
#43
I guess we could just go with the known phenomena of novel viruses making the leap from animal to human as the likely explanation, supported by large human organizations that all too often suffer from inefficiency and good old fashioned human error.
But why go with a simple straightforward explanation when a complicated convoluted one will do?
 
#44
Right. Exposing the world to the numbers I outlined in my post would be a far worse and much longer lasting blow to the global economy. Isn't that rather easy to see?

What are you proposing we should do?
Not panic.

What proportion of the numbers you quote are these measures likely to save? These measure aren't gong to save everyone

If you are right with your infection rates etc we will still have huge numbers of virus deaths AND a global depression.

Why don't we take these precautions every flu season? Because those lives lost aren't worth the impacts on our lives. You're saying a virus that is 10 times worse is worth this impact... Where's the trigger point?
 
#45
So you are proposing the "do nothing" scenario?

What proportion of the numbers you quote are these measures likely to save? These measure aren't gong to save everyone
Of course they won't save everyone. That's not part of the plan Malf and you know that. I don't know the answer to your question, but if any of the curve flattening scenarios are correct, the number will be significant. This is also related to your next point.

If you are right with your infection rates etc we will still have huge numbers of virus deaths AND a global depression.
Here's the rub and something it seems you are missing: We're going to have a global depression no matter what course we take. That's been baked into the pie since this virus hopped to humans in December. We're now into the scenario of trying to save as many lives as we can AND to do what we can to lessen the economic impact (see recent central bank moves).

Why don't we take these precautions every flu season? Because those lives lost aren't worth the impacts on our lives. You're saying a virus that is 10 times worse is worth this impact... Where's the trigger point?
Because the flu isn't a runaway pandemic. Because we can actually manage the impact of the seasonal flu through wide spread use of vaccines and a medical infrastructure that can deal with severe cases.

You seemingly can't understand the collateral impact of COVID-19 having an unabated, rapid rate of infection: it cripples the medical system. People who are injured and need emergency surgery won't get it; and will die. People with diseases requiring intensive care, respiratory care, or surgical treatments won't get them; and will die. The medical system will fold under pressure and revert to a wartime triage system. This isn't the flu and its ignorant to keep drawing this comparison.

The trigger point is trading some short term economic turbulence to rally together to save lives, maintain a functioning medical system, and for the survivors to be able to sleep at night.
 
#52
For a 0.6% mortality rate disease, I’m questioning whether the response is proportionate. This is a value judgement, and outside the purview of science, btw.

You’re frightened sure. Frightened because the press has encouraged you to be. That’s what a large part of them are there for. Keep clicking.


That said, I’ve been championing the demise of capitalism for some time. So strap in and carry on...
 
#53
It is hard to compare the fatality rate of covid-19 to flu because the number of mild cases of covid-19 are unknown.

However the fatality rate of cases confirmed by testing can be compared, Covid-19 has a higher rate of fatality in confirmed cases than influenza, 2.3% for covid-19 and .1% for influenza.

Covid-19 is also more contagious than the flu. In ordinary circumstances a covid-19 patient is likely to infect 2-3 other people. A flu patient is likely to infect 1.3 people.



https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts

11 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic
What symptoms are most common, which groups are most at risk, and more.

By Dylan Matthews@dylanmattdylan@vox.com Updated Mar 17, 2020, 9:46am EDT
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#56
For a 0.6% mortality rate disease, I’m questioning whether the response is proportionate. This is a value judgement, and outside the purview of science, btw.
You're making a value judgement on the mortality rate of this disease? Of course that's outside the purview of science. Its also outside the purvey of logic.

You’re frightened sure. Frightened because the press has encouraged you to be. That’s what a large part of them are there for. Keep clicking.
The press really isn't frightening. Its the contagious disease experts they interview who are frightening.


That said, I’ve been championing the demise of capitalism for some time. So strap in and carry on...
Okay.
 
#58
I am not sure if it is possible to draw conclusions from the cruise ship, after a certain point they took measures to prevent the spread of the virus. So how can we know if the virus is mild or if the precautions were effective?
 
#60
I think this graph of confirmed cases is the most helpful I've seen. It appears to be updated daily. It's interactive, if you go to the link you can customize the countries displayed, the time interval, and the scale. In the graph below I added the US and chose the log scale (to show exponential growth as a straight line). For the last 20 days the number of cases in the US has been increasing by a factor of ten every ten days.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-cases-by-country

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