Coronavirus Pandemic

At least two scientists, and one of them looks as
Okay David.

You do see your own bias confirmation at work here, right? I mean at least try to be honest with yourself. You found one, long retired scientist espousing a view you were seeking to confirm. Again, he brings no evidence, no study, nothing emperical; just an appeal to his own authority. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the scientific and medical community sees this thing as a threat worthy of countermeasures.
At least two scientists from the field, and one of them looks as if he is probably still in post.

I long since abandoned reaching conclusions based on scientific consensus.

David
 
I wrote the video transcript up (and did a wee bit of editing/cleanup for those who are English language oriented for better clarity)

Interviewer:

Pro. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, you are an infectious disease specialist.
You are one of the most highly cited medical research scientists of Germany.
Today we are talking about the Corona virus (COVID-19)
Also, in Germany, a state of emergency is imposing extreme restrictions
What are Corona viruses?

Pro. Bhakdi:
These viruses co-exist with humans and animals around the globe.
The Viruses are the cause of very common, minor diseases of the respiratory tract.
Very often, infections remain subclinical without symptoms.
Severe courses occur almost exclusively in elderly patients with other underlying illnesses, in particular, of lung and heart.
Now, however, a new member is on stage spreading fear around the world.
Why?
The new COVID-19 originated in China and spread rapidly.
It appeared to be accompanied by an unexpectedly high number of deaths.
Alarming reports followed from Northern Italy that concurred with the Chinese experience.
It must, however, be pointed out that the large majority of other outbreaks in other parts of the world appeared to display apparently lower mortality rates and such high numbers of 4, 5 or 6% were not reached.
For example, in South Korea the apparent mortality rate was 1%.

Interviewer:
Why “apparent” mortality rate?

Pro. Bhakdi:
When patients concurrently have other illnesses, an infectious agent must not be held solely responsible for a lethal outcome.
This happens for COVID-19, but such a conclusion is false and gives rise to the danger that other important factors are overlooked.
Different mortality rates may well be due to different local situations.
For example, what does Northern Italy have in common with China?
Answer: Horrific air pollution… the highest in the world.
Northern Italy is the China of Europe.
The lungs of inhabitants there have been chronically injured over decades, and for this simple reason the situation may not be comparable to elsewhere.

Interviewer:
What about Germany? – the virus has also spread to us.

Pro. Bhakdi:
Yes. It is spreading in Germany.
One of the most important consequences is that we now have sufficient data to gauge the true danger of the virus in our country.


Interviewer:
Which is what the German experts and politicians have done.
The highest alert level has been proclaimed and extreme preventative measures have been installed in the desperate attempt to retard the spread of the virus.

Pro. Bhakdi:
Yes, and this is the incredible tragedy.
Because all of these adopted measures are actually senseless.
Namely, the pressing questions are answered.
The first one: Does the virus generally cause more serious illness also in young people and kill patients who have no concurring illness?
This would make this Corona Virus (COVID-19) different from other everyday Corona viruses of the world.
The answer is clearly: No!

1585235980149.png

We have 10,000 infections reported (2020-03-18).
99.5% have no or only mild symptoms.
Here (99.5%), we already see that it is false and dangerous to talk about 10,000 “patients”!
They are not seriously ill.
“Infection” is not identical with “disease”.
Of 10,000 infected people, only 50 – 60 were seriously ill.
And 30 died up to this present day (2020-03-18) in 30 days.
So, we have an apparent mortality rate of 1 COVID-19 per positive cases per day up to now.
(40,421 and 229 as of 2020-03-26 – 8 days later)
The looming worst case scenario that “must be prevented” according to the authorities… We would have 1,000,000 cases (one million cases) and maybe 3,000 deaths in 100 days.
This would mean 30 deaths a day.
The aim is to prevent this “worst case scenario”.

Interviewer:
All current emergency measures aim to slow down the virus spread to save lives.

Pro. Bhakdi:
Yes.
But we are looking already at the worst case scenario – with 30 deaths a day.
30 deaths a day may sound like quite a lot.
Keep in mind that every day, 2,200 over 65-year old seniors depart from us here in Germany.

1585236012922.png

Keep in mind that many of these carry common Corona viruses.
How many are not known, so let us just assume 1% (which is surely too low).
This would translate to 22 per day (that died that had a common Corona virus). And these die every day.
The only difference is that we do not [ever] talk about “Corona-deaths”, because we know that these viruses are normally not the major cause of death.
So, what we are doing at this moment is to prevent that these 22 are replaced by 30 COVID-19 positive patients.
This is what is happening.
We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths a day over the next 100 days.
But we do not realize that 20 or 30 or 40 or 100 patients who are positive for an ordinary Corona virus are already dying every day.
[And so, what we are doing is trying to minimize…]… to avoid that COVID-19 enters the scene, that which we never have done for other Corona viruses, we installed extreme measures.

Interviewer:
So, what do you think about all these extreme measures?

Pro. Bhakdi:
They are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous.
Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 that daily embark on their last [daily] journey.
Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies, etc., etc. all help to prolong their stay on earth.
The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.
The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.
The consequences on medical care are profound.
Already, services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.
All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.
I can only say: All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.
 
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I wrote the video transcript up (and did a wee bit of editing/cleanup for those who are English language oriented for better clarity)

Interviewer:

Pro. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, you are an infectious disease specialist.

You are one of the most highly cited medical research scientists of Germany.

Today we are talking about the Corona virus (COVID-19)

Also, in Germany, a state of emergency is imposing extreme restrictions

What are Corona viruses?



Pro. Bhakdi:

These viruses co-exist with humans and animals around the globe.

The Viruses are the cause of very common, minor diseases of the respiratory tract.

Very often, infections remain subclinical without symptoms.

Severe courses occur almost exclusively in elderly patients with other underlying illnesses, in particular, of lung and heart.

Now, however, a new member is on stage spreading fear around the world.

Why?

The new COVID-19 originated in China and spread rapidly.

It appeared to be accompanied by an unexpectedly high number of deaths.

Alarming reports followed from Northern Italy that concurred with the Chinese experience.

It must, however, be pointed out that the large majority of other outbreaks in other parts of the world appeared to display apparently lower mortality rates and such high numbers of 4, 5 or 6% were not reached.

For example, in South Korea the apparent mortality rate was 1%.



Interviewer:

Why “apparent” mortality rate?



Pro. Bhakdi:

When patients concurrently have other illnesses, an infectious agent must not be held solely responsible for a lethal outcome.

This happens for COVID-19, but such a conclusion is false and gives rise to the danger that other important factors are overlooked.

Different mortality rates may well be due to different local situations.

For example, what does Northern Italy have in common with China?

Answer: Horrific air pollution… the highest in the world.

Northern Italy is the China of Europe.

The lungs of inhabitants there have been chronically injured over decades, and for this simple reason the situation may not be comparable to elsewhere.



Interviewer:

What about Germany? – the virus has also spread to us.



Pro. Bhakdi:

Yes. It is spreading in Germany.

One of the most important consequences is that we now have sufficient data to guage the true danger of the virus in our country.







Interviewer:

Which is what the German experts and politicians have done.

The highest alert level has been proclaimed and extreme preventative measures have been installed in the desperate attempt to retard the spread of the virus.



Pro. Bhakdi:

Yes, and this is the incredible tragedy.

Because all of these adopted measures are actually senseless.

Namely, the pressing questions are answered.

The first one: Does the virus generally cause more serious illness also in young people and kill patients who have no concurring illness?

This would make this Corona Virus (COVID-19) different from other everyday Corona viruses of the world.

The answer is clearly: No!

View attachment 1578

We have 10,000 infections reported (2020-03-18).

99.5% have no or only mild symptoms.

Here (99.5%), we already see that it is false and dangerous to talk about 10,000 “patients”!

They are not seriously ill.

“Infection” is not identical with “disease”.

Of 10,000 infected people, only 50 – 60 were seriously ill.

And 30 died up to this present day (2020-03-18) in 30 days.

So, we have an apparent mortality rate of 1 COVID-19 per positive cases per day up to now.

(40,421 and 229 as of 2020-03-26 – 8 days later)

The looming worst case scenario that “must be prevented” according to the authorities… We would have 1,000,000 cases (one million cases) and maybe 3,000 deaths in 100 days.

This would mean 30 deaths a day.

The aim is to prevent this “worst case scenario”.



Interviewer:

All current emergency measures aim to slow down the virus spread to save lives.



Pro. Bhakdi:

Yes.

But we are looking already at the worst case scenario – with 30 deaths a day.

30 deaths a day may sound like quite a lot.

Keep in mind that every day, 2,200 over 65-year old seniors depart from us here in Germany.

View attachment 1579

Keep in mind that many of these carry common Corona viruses.

How many are not known, so let us just assume 1% (which is surely too low).

This would translate to 22 per day (that died that had a common Corona virus). And these die every day.

The only difference is that we do not [ever] talk about “Corona-deaths”, because we know that these viruses are normally not the major cause of death.

So, what we are doing at this moment is to prevent that these 22 are replaced by 30 COVID-19 positive patients.

This is what is happening.

We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths a day over the next 100 days.

But we do not realize that 20 or 30 or 40 or 100 patients who are positive for an ordinary Corona virus are already dying every day.

[And so, what we are doing is trying to minimize…]… to avoid that COVID-19 enters the scene, that which we never have done for other Corona viruses, we installed extreme measures.



Interviewer:

So, what do you think about all these extreme measures?



Pro. Bhakdi:

They are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous.

Our elderly citizens have every right to make efforts not to belong to the 2,200 that daily embark on their last [daily] journey.

Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies, etc., etc. all help to prolong their stay on earth.

The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.

The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people.

The consequences on medical care are profound.

Already, services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling.

All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.

I can only say: All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide because of nothing but a spook.
Thanks for this! The only leader in the Western world who is likely buck this crazy trend, is President Trump.
David
 
This couldn't be further from the truth Wormwood.

The economic impact has come from the healthy policies implemented by governments. Telling businesses to close and workers to stay home is precisely why economic activity has stalled. Is there some impact from individual's fear and panic? I'm sure, but it pales in comparison to the public policy measures.

This is why most economists see this as a rather unique economic slowdown. In many parts of the world, my home country the U.S. for example, economies came into this COVID-19 scenario quite strong. Strong GDP growth, near record unemployment, etc. Many economists expect a rather rapid expansion post control of COVID-19 (unlike the slow growth we saw coming out of the '08 financial crisis).
Telling businesses to close and people to stay home is a result of the fear and panic itself and has also fueled the panic. They’re strongly related. Not mutually exclusive. This set the fear (which was already there) into overdrive.

I work as a chiropractor and I see roughly 25-30 patients per day. When this debacle first started, for a week I noticed I was down to about 20 per day. Then the shelter order came and bam, that very day I saw two patients. We’re still open as we fit the criterion of “essential” services. All of our patients know that we are still open. I’m now seeing maybe 5-8 patients per day. And I feel lucky for even that. I feel Terrible for the businesses which are completely closed.
 
Craig Spencer MD MPH works in a emergency room in New York. He tweets:

"Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.​
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.​
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now.​
I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives​
You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.​
You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.​
You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.​
I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19."​


Here is the full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1242302400762908685.html

Thank you everyone for your incredible messages of support and encouragement.♥️​
Many of you asked what it was like in the ER right now. I want to share a bit with you. Please RT:​
A Day in the Life of an ER Doc - A Brief Dispatch from the #COVID19 Frontline:​
Wake up at 6:30am. Priority is making a big pot of coffee for the whole day, because the place by the hospital is closed. The Starbucks too. It's all closed.​
On the walk, it feels like Sunday. No one is out. Might be the freezing rain. Or it's early. Regardless, that's good.​
Walk in for your 8am shift: Immediately struck by how the calm of the early morning city streets is immediately transformed. The bright fluorescent lights of the ER reflect off everyone's protective goggles. There is a cacophony of coughing. You stop. Mask up. Walk in.​
You take signout from the previous team, but nearly every patient is the same, young & old:​
Cough, shortness of breath, fever.​
They are really worried about one patient. Very short of breath, on the maximum amount of oxygen we can give, but still breathing fast.​
You immediately assess this patient. It's clear what this is, and what needs to happen. You have a long and honest discussion with the patient and family over the phone. It's best to put her on life support now, before things get much worse. You're getting set up for that, but...​
You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube. It's not even 10am yet​
For the rest of your shift, nearly every hour, you get paged:​
Stat notification: Very sick patient, short of breath, fever. Oxygen 88%.​
Stat notification: Low blood pressure, short of breath, low oxygen.​
Stat notification: Low oxygen, can't breath. Fever.​
All day...​
Sometime in the afternoon you recognize you haven't drank any water. You're afraid to take off the mask. It's the only thing that protects you. Surely you can last a little longer - in West Africa during Ebola, you spent hours in a hot suit without water. One more patient...​
By late afternoon, you need to eat. Restaurant across the street is closed. Right, everything is closed. But thankfully the hospital cafeteria is open. You grab something, wash your hands (twice), cautiously take off your mask, & eat as fast as you can. Go back. Mask up. Walk in.​
Nearly everyone you see today is the same. We assume everyone is #COVIDー19. We wear gowns, goggles, and masks at every encounter. All day. It's the only way to be safe. Where did all the heart attacks and appendicitis patients go? Its all COVID.​
When your shift ends, you sign out to the oncoming team. It's all #COVIDー19. Over the past week, we've all learned the signs - low oxygen, lymphopenia, elevated D-dimer.​
You share concerns of friends throughout the city without PPE. Hospitals running out of ventilators.​
Before you leave, you wipe EVERYTHING down. Your phone. Your badge. Your wallet. Your coffee mug. All of it. Drown it in bleach. Everything in a bag. Take no chances.​
Sure you got it all??? Wipe is down again. Can't be too careful.​
You walk out and take off your mask. You feel naked and exposed. It's still raining, but you want to walk home. Feels safer than the subway or bus, plus you need to decompress.​
The streets are empty. This feels nothing like what is happening inside. Maybe people don't know???​
You get home. You strip in the hallway (it's ok, your neighbors know what you do). Everything in a bag. Your wife tries to keep your toddler away, but she hasn't seen you in days, so it's really hard. Run to the shower. Rinse it all away. Never happier. Time for family.​
You reflect on the fact that it's really hard to understand how bad this is - and how bad its going to be - if all you see are empty streets.​
Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.​
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.​
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now. I don't care as much about the economic impact as I do about our ability to save lives​
You might hear people saying it isn't real. It is.​
You might hear people saying it isn't bad. It is.​
You might hear people saying it can't take you down. It can.​
I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19.​
Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe.​
And every day I'll come to work for you​

From the twitter comments:

 
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Can you explain what they did and how they arrived at their conclusions?

"Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives. "

"Might" be false positives? What does this paper mean?

"Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. "

What did they do?

I clicked on the link to the full text and got this:

4.JPG
 
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Craig Spencer MD MPH works in a emergency room in New York. He tweets:

"Hospitals are nearing capacity. We are running out of ventilators. Ambulance sirens don't stop.​
Everyone we see today was infected a week ago, or more. The numbers will undoubtedly skyrocket overnight, as they have every night the past few days. More will come to the ER. More will be stat notifications. More will be put on a ventilator.​
We were too late to stop this virus. Full stop. But we can slow it's spread. The virus can't infect those it never meets. Stay inside. Social distancing is the only thing that will save us now.​
OK my question would be this. In the past if someone with 'similar comorbidities' arrived in hospital in that state, did they get put on a ventilator? Or indeed, did they even get to hospital, perhaps they were simply told, "I am very sorry, but there is nothing further we can do for you".

My guess is that they did not, but if they arrive with COVID-19 as well, I'd guess they all get put on a ventilator. I'd love to know the answer to this.

David

 
OK my question would be this. In the past if someone with 'similar comorbidities' arrived in hospital in that state, did they get put on a ventilator? Or indeed, did they even get to hospital, perhaps they were simply told, "I am very sorry, but there is nothing further we can do for you".

My guess is that they did not, but if they arrive with COVID-19 as well, I'd guess they all get put on a ventilator. I'd love to know the answer to this.

David

David,

We don't have socialized medicine (yet) in the US. If you have medical insurance they will milk it dry. They will perform every fancy procedure and test and treatment that is remotely related to your symptoms until your money runs out. Then you go on medicaid (insurance for the poor) and they start over.
 
At least two scientists, and one of them looks as

At least two scientists from the field, and one of them looks as if he is probably still in post.

I long since abandoned reaching conclusions based on scientific consensus.

David
Right. Search until you find what makes sense to you? That's called bias. It seems to me like you have done likely no research of your own on this virus. Open to correction there. So, presuming that's the case, why are you adopting the position of two VERY minority voices? There is some scientific, evidential based reason?
 
Telling businesses to close and people to stay home is a result of the fear and panic itself and has also fueled the panic. They’re strongly related. Not mutually exclusive. This set the fear (which was already there) into overdrive.

I work as a chiropractor and I see roughly 25-30 patients per day. When this debacle first started, for a week I noticed I was down to about 20 per day. Then the shelter order came and bam, that very day I saw two patients. We’re still open as we fit the criterion of “essential” services. All of our patients know that we are still open. I’m now seeing maybe 5-8 patients per day. And I feel lucky for even that. I feel Terrible for the businesses which are completely closed.
It is my opinion that "the media" (just about all the mainstream "corporate controlled" media) is in no small way, responsible for the panic. And, because of their impact on much of the far less responsibly informed masses, governments are inclined to act far more cautiously, even if those actions are clearly draconion.

What I wish the Trump administration would do is create, from credentialed experts, a projection of the health impact that different models of "economic management plans" and then match up the different "health care management plans" as to what economic management plans would be possible.

For example, - and this is an obviously extreme one meant only for purposes of clarification...

If we go full US lock-down for three more months, and we save a projected 10,000 lives, yet the economy will certainly collapse and millions will lose jobs and there will be no ability for these jobs to return for years (if ever)... and it can be reasonably projected that the poverty will cause 100,000 deaths from all the various ways extreme poverty kills people, including those who, because of depression, take their own lives.

I can't imagine the Trump team is not already on something like this... still though, with the media (and the left/dems of which the media is desperately trying to empower), this is a ridiculous, but very real obstacle. And that it has come down to this (certainly predictable), just highlights more than ever the degree of loss of connection ot soul (read that literally or metaphorically) and/or any ethical or moral "high road" standards which we would normally see across the board in a crisis like this.

Apologies I wrote in a US-centric way yet regardless of where one is in the world, a great deal of what we are all seeing from the press and the left is, more than anything, targeted to take out Trump in 2020 and/or ensure the left gains the Senate and keeps the House.

This is exactly what is going on.
 
David,

We don't have socialized medicine (yet) in the US. If you have medical insurance they will milk it dry. They will perform every fancy procedure and test and treatment that is remotely related to your symptoms until your money runs out. Then you go on medicaid (insurance for the poor) and they start over.
I am not quite sure if that answers my (very genuine) query, or says it is impossible to tell.

I mean surely all people who are close to death are not ventilated at their end if they stop breathing?

I suspect those with COVID-19 are given ventilation where those without are assessed before being ventilated. I'd love to know. I mean over 7000 people die in the US every day as normal!

David
 
I work as a chiropractor and I see roughly 25-30 patients per day. When this debacle first started, for a week I noticed I was down to about 20 per day. Then the shelter order came and bam, that very day I saw two patients. We’re still open as we fit the criterion of “essential” services. All of our patients know that we are still open. I’m now seeing maybe 5-8 patients per day. And I feel lucky for even that. I feel Terrible for the businesses which are completely closed.
Yes, I make some use of acupuncture. They can be very effective for problems like sciatica and osteoarthritis, and they have all closed in the UK.

David
 
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