dpdownsouth
Member
An interesting piece from here in South Africa, written by a retired Public Health professor and a data guy:
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...n-in-south-africa-can-no-longer-be-justified/
Excerpts:
Covid-19 has spread at different velocities and has taken hold at different dates in different populations, regardless of lockdown severity or implementation date.
Covid-19 is not a runaway train. In every instance described, we see a familiar pattern common to viral outbreaks. Undoubtedly Russia is at the start of their outbreak, while Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium are over the first surge.
The severity or earliness of the suppression/lockdown does not have a predictable flattening of the curve...
By regarding 1,000 confirmed cases as Day 1 of the outbreak, we can track the trajectory of the curve for each country from the same relative start position. Indeed, there are some uncannily similar trajectories for countries – what is profound is that the trajectory of the infection is determined by population size (a proxy for geographical size or population density).
By this expedient, every possible variable is removed from the equation (weather, health capacity, lockdown stringency, ad infinitum). The results are nothing less than astonishing:
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/art...n-in-south-africa-can-no-longer-be-justified/
Excerpts:
Covid-19 has spread at different velocities and has taken hold at different dates in different populations, regardless of lockdown severity or implementation date.
Covid-19 is not a runaway train. In every instance described, we see a familiar pattern common to viral outbreaks. Undoubtedly Russia is at the start of their outbreak, while Spain, Portugal, Italy and Belgium are over the first surge.
The severity or earliness of the suppression/lockdown does not have a predictable flattening of the curve...
By regarding 1,000 confirmed cases as Day 1 of the outbreak, we can track the trajectory of the curve for each country from the same relative start position. Indeed, there are some uncannily similar trajectories for countries – what is profound is that the trajectory of the infection is determined by population size (a proxy for geographical size or population density).
By this expedient, every possible variable is removed from the equation (weather, health capacity, lockdown stringency, ad infinitum). The results are nothing less than astonishing:
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