gabriel
New
Haven't plotted Dames reliability in detail, but I have an inbuilt suspicion of apocalyptic style pronouncements. First they're difficult to evaluate, for instance in developing countries flood, famine, pestilence and war are tragically unremarkable, second, they appeal to the announcer's need to up the risk, and our desire for high stakes claims. It's also difficult to balance personal disaster - say, a heart attack in your sitting room - with a tsunami that wipes out a few communities you've never heard of. Exotic claims, like falling space stations or aircraft crashing over a metropolis, should be accountable literally, not symbolically, to make any statistical sense.