Max_B
Member
Obviously we trust polls at our peril these days, but this UK election might be interesting...
It was interesting, indeed it was a riveting election. In hindsight it looks like the right wing of the Conservative party took control of the party after the referendum on the EU, with the right wingers of the party believing the country had moved to the right, and that they could mop up the UKIP voters with an early election, and take out some labour heartlands at the same time. Unfortunately the country hadn't moved to the right, the brexit vote had been about the fears of uncontrolled immigration, and although the conservatives took much of the UKIP voters back, they lost the more moderate left and center of their own party to Labour, because of the hopeless right wing message.
Meanwhile Corbyn judged his campaign perfectly, and adopted a position of hope and tolerance, galvanized the young, and his offer was the only viable option for anyone who rejected the conservatives hopeless right wing offer.
The country now seems to have split right and left, with strong right wing and left wing agenda's. It seems a pretty immovable situation to me. The problem I see is that the conservatives are a bit more dependent on the older voters, whereas Labour are a bit more dependent on the younger voters. Therefore Labour has age on its side... their appeal to younger voters will add more Labour voters to their party as new people reach voting age, whilst the conservatives will shrink a bit more as their older voters die off.
Either the conservatives move back to the centre, or I think over time they will simply become less and less relevant. The Libdems killed themselves off by joining a coalition, and that leaves the whole stage wide open to Labour.
Everything is shifting in the UK... I think Corbyn is right, too many people in the UK have just rejected continued austerity, and the hard times the conservatives promised with a hard brexit. There is no going back to austerity, its finished, its an unwinnable agenda. Labours one member one vote, and the left wing control of the National Executive mean things can't change in Labour whilst Corbyn remains Leader... if they simply wait out the conservatives they will win. I think the conservatives will either have to reject the right, or tear themselves apart trying.